Much ado about 'Russian Propaganda' | GDP beats predictions | Indonesia Intelligencer (Feb 2-8)
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Business
GDP growth beats forecasts:
Indonesia’s real GDP grew by 5.17% in 2018, newly released government data revealed this week. It’s the largest annual growth increment of President Joko Widodo’s tenure and the fastest pace in half a decade.
The country’s GDP rose 5.18% in the fourth quarter from a year ago, compared with the 5.1% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
The government has vowed to boost exports to meet its 5.3% target for GDP growth in 2019. Exports for goods and services grew 6.48% in 2018, but imports grew by 12.04% over the same period.
Richer on average: Government data also showed Indonesia’s GDP per capita growing to IDR56 million (US$3,927) in 2018, a healthy leap from 2017 (IDR51.9 million) and 2016 (IDR47.9 million).
Cheaper coal: Indonesia lowered its coal price reference (HBA) by 0.6% to US$91.8 per ton for February, lower than the US$92.41 per ton set in January. The measure was taken to anticipate India and China’s growing dependence on domestic coal.
Indo-Australia FTA remains in limbo: It had been expected to be ratified easily last year, but the chances of Australia and Indonesia signing off on a major Free Trade Agreement before Australia’s next federal election look increasingly slim due to ongoing fall-out from Australia’s decision to move its Israeli embassy to Jerusalem late last year. The Australian government is now saying only that it hopes the deal will be inked at some point this year.
Stretching out in coach:
Flag carrier Garuda Indonesia is offering a rather strange new seating option on its Jakarta-London-Denpasar flight: the ability for passengers to purchase three adjacent economy class seats so they can “rest more comfortably” on the long-haul journey.
The seating plan has raised eyebrows, with many wondering if it was a gimmick by Garuda to fill empty seats on the route and whether lying across three seats during a flight is safe.
OYO eyes more rooms: Indian hospitality startup OYO is planning to spend US$100 million over the next five years in Indonesia to expand its presence in the country. OYO, which is currently operating 150 budget hotels in 15 Indonesian cities, is already looking at closing 2019 with a presence in 100 of the archipelago’s cities.
K-pop to I-pop: SM Entertainment, one of Korea’s largest entertainment agencies, has opened an office in Jakarta. The office is expected to become a haven for K-pop fans in Indonesia, selling merchandise and holding auditions in the future (to look for “I-pop” idols perhaps?).
Recommended reads
What's The Catch With Indonesia? (Brandywine Global Investment Management)
From where we stand today, there are a handful of emerging markets (EMs) where 10-year local-currency bonds yield 8-9%: Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, and Turkey. Mexico and Turkey are still dealing with inflationary pressures which forced their central banks to tighten policy in 2018. Brazil and South Africa are under new leadership that has yet to address fiscal sustainability issues. Russia continues to face sanctions risk. Meanwhile, Indonesia exhibits below-target inflation, a solid investment grade profile, and few geopolitical headlines. So, what's the catch with Indonesia? Is there a price anomaly in the bonds or are we missing something?
Bean bonanza: Coffee cafes pop up in remote corner of Indonesia (AFP):
For decades, there wasn't a coffee shop anywhere in Indonesia's Toraja region even as its high-quality beans grabbed top dollar on the international market. Locals in the lush, mountainous area on Sulawesi island used the bitter beverage in traditional ceremonies, gave away their extra beans to neighbours for free or traded them for a sack of rice and livestock.
But Toraja is experiencing a mini-explosion in cafés, with dozens of shops sprouting up in the region courtesy of entrepreneurs like Suleman Miting.
Politics
Russian to attack
President Joko Widodo went on an innuendo offensive over the weekend, suggesting that the campaign of his election rival, Prabowo Subianto, was utilizing a “Russian propaganda” model, like US President Donald Trump, with the aid of foreign consultants.
Jokowi did not accuse Russia of directly meddling in Indonesia’s election, clarifying at several points that he was specifically referring to another campaign using the Russian “Firehose of Falsehood” propaganda model outlined in a 2016 paper by the Rand Corporation, a US-based policy think tank.
The Russian government, via its embassy in Indonesia, denied intervening in Indonesia or any other country’s elections and said the term “Russian propaganda” is a made-up term “without basis in reality”.
Prabowo’s campaign strongly denied the charges of using fake news or foreign consultants and hit back with their own accusations that Jokowi’s campaign has been using a foreign consultant (neither side’s accusations have been substantiated).
The president was reported to both the police and the Election Supervisory Committee (Bawaslu) by third parties for his Russian propaganda comments, but police have already said they won’t investigate and it seems unlikely Bawaslu will either, so it's probably not the last we’ve heard on the issue.
Russian to defense: The controversy did not seem to derail a meeting between Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and his Indonesian counterpart, Ryamizard Ryacudu, on Wednesday, with Shoigu saying that the two countries had had agreed to step up political dialogue, enhanced interaction in the security sphere and strengthened defense cooperation. He also expressed hope that Indonesia would use its non-permanent member position on the United Nations Security Council to support Russia in “resolving pressing global issues”.
Survey says students swinging towards Prabowo
The latest poll from the Indonesian Survey Circle (LSI), taken Jan 18-25, shows Jokowi dominating over Prabowo in several demographic groups including Muslim voters (49.5% to 35.4%), minority voters (86.5% to 4.7%) and millennials (52.6% 33.8%).
However, one demographic LSI says Prabowo is beating Jokowi in is students of voting age, of whom 44% chose the challenger compared to 37.7% for the incumbent
Budget “bocor” accusations: One attack from Prabowo that got play this week was the Gerindra chief’s claim that about 25% of the State Budget had been “leaked” due to massive markups, losing the state IDR5 trillion per year. Jokowi challenged Prabowo to take his accusation to the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) if he had any evidence.
Ahmad Dhani keeps UU ITE in the spotlight
After being sentenced to 1.5 years for spreading hate speech in violation of the controversial Information and Electronic Transactions Act (UU ITE) just last week, musician-turned-politician Ahmad Dhani began a new trial on Thursday for a similar UU ITE violation involving a video in which the outspoken critic of the government called a group of counter-protesters “idiots” for preventing him from attending an anti-Jokowi rally last year.
The case continues to raise questions about the misuse of the UU ITE law, especially to silence government critics, with more and more opposition figures saying the law is being used unjustly. Prabowo’s running mate Sandiaga Uno has promised that their administration would revise the law if elected.
General job placement plan problematic
A plan by Jokowi’s administration to give high-ranking civilian posts to dozens of underemployed military generals is under fire from human rights activists who worry it could endangers Indonesia’s young democracy and unbalance civil-military relations.
In an excellent thread on the subject, Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) researched Evan A. Laksmana argues the plan is more the result of the military having no long-term plans for managing its personnel as opposed to creeping authoritarianism on the part of Jokowi.
Music Bill hits sour note
Indonesian musicians are singing foul after learning that one of the priority bills to be discussed during the 2019 National Legislative Program (Prolegnas) is the controversial Draft Law on Music (RUU Permusikan).
A coalition of hundreds of musicians is calling upon the government to reject the bill, arguing it would destroy freedom of expression due to a number of broadly subjective articles such as one “forbidding the creation of music that ‘adopts negative influences from foreign culture’.”
Conservatives aim to eliminate Elimination of Sexual Violence Bill
The Islam-based Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) is refusing to support the Draft Law on the Elimination of Sexual Violence (RUU PKS).
Activists say RUU PKS is desperately needed to provide greater legal protections to victims of sexual and other forms of gender-based violence.
PKS is echoing ultra-conservative activists who argue the bill could permit ‘free sex and deviant sexual behavior’ (by not specifically criminalizing sex outside of marriage) and say they will attempt to block the bill’s passage.
Indonesia seeks “clarification” from Philippines over bomber linkage
Indonesia's ambassador to the Philippines is set to formally seek clarification from the Philippine government regarding its claim that an Indonesian couple was behind the deadly Jan 27 suicide bombing attacks on a Roman Catholic church in the city of Jolo.
Indonesian officials say there is no proof for the claim and noted that Filipino authorities had erroneously linked Indonesians to terrorist acts in the past.
Members of Indonesia’s elite counter-terrorism unit Densus 88 went to the Philippines on Sunday to assist local authorities in identifying the bombers.
Recommended reads
Indonesia’s Opposition Takes Up the Uighur Cause (Foreign Policy)
The detention of a million or more Uighurs has made headlines around the world, but the liberal media in Indonesia has given the issue very soft treatment. That’s partially because of a deliberate propaganda effort by China to target Indonesian journalists—and partially because of domestic politics in the world’s largest Muslim nation. The government of Indonesia has also remained conspicuously reserved, even in the face of China unveiling plans to “Sinicize Islam.” Vice President Jusuf Kalla has asserted that Jakarta has no intention to interfere with Beijing’s treatment of Muslims in China. China is Indonesia’s largest trading partner, with figures from the Indonesian Ministry of Trade showing that two-way trade jumped 25 percent to $66 billion during the first 11 months of 2018.
Counterterrorism missing from Indonesia’s presidential debate (East Asia Forum)
Because there are no significant differences between the Jokowi–Amin and Subianto–Uno visions on counterterrorism, there was no constructive discussion on the issue during the presidential debate. But Subianto’s argument about the roots of terrorism was interesting to note. He asserted that terrorism is the result of social injustice and subversive infiltration by foreign actors.
The second part of the claim echoes former Indonesian military chief General Gatot Nurmantyo’s notion of the ‘proxy war’. This statement is likely to appeal to a group of voters who are reluctant to acknowledge the problem of homegrown terrorism and believe that terrorism is a conspiracy propagated by foreign powers such as the United States. Subianto’s statement resonates with the 212 Movement, whose head Slamet Maarif argues that terrorism is a means to institutionalise Islamophobia.
Indonesia’s 2019 Elections: Beware the Foreign Puppet Wars in the Jokowi-Prabowo Race (The Diplomat)
How exactly the foreign influence factor plays into the election up to the polls in April will continue to be interesting to watch. This includes not just the regular campaign events they have scheduled as well as other messaging pushed out by both camps, but also the next few iterations of Indonesia’s presidential debates, especially the one focused on foreign and security policy towards the end of March featuring the candidates and their running matters just weeks before the elections. Given how close and down to the wire Indonesia’s 2014 election was, there is still a long way to go.
Eye on prize, Prabowo treads a fine religious line (Asia Times)
Most Indonesian observers believe that for all the claims that he is un-Islamic, Widodo, a native of rural Java, is in fact more devout than his rival. At Prabowo’s birthday celebration last year, amused guests heard him telling an invited Muslim cleric to speed up the pre-dinner consecration because everyone was hungry.
Widodo’s critics also accuse him of being a closet communist, which now seems strange after Prabowo’s brother Hashim told the Communion of Churches: “We accept support from anyone except the devil. We would even accept support from the grandchildren and great-grandchildren of the PKI (Communist Party of Indonesia) as long as Prabowo is not led to the hammer and sickle.”
Talking Indonesia: democracy for sale (Indonesia at Melbourne): In the latest episode of the Talking Indonesia podcast, Dr Jemma Purdey speaks to Ward Berenschot, co-author with Edward Aspinall of a timely new book, Democracy for sale: Elections, Clientelism, and the State in Indonesia, which takes a close look at the informal politics of elections and patronage democracy.
Other News and Notable Features
KPK under attack again: Unidentified assailants assaulted two Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) investigators in Jakarta on Saturday night while they were investigating a tip from the public. Police have yet to name any suspects in the case. The attack comes about one month after bomb threats were made at the homes of two KPK senior officials.
Trafficking terror: Police in Medan found 193 Bangladeshi nationals locked up in a shop house after human traffickers had lured them with the promise of getting them to Malaysia. The men had entered Indonesia on tourist visas via Bali and Yogyakarta and had allegedly been held in the building for three months.
Dengue danger remains high: According to the health ministry, out of 16,692 dengue cases reported across the country so far in 2019, at least 176 people have died. One ministry official said the high number of deaths was due to patients not getting treatment quickly enough. The number of dengue cases and deaths in January far exceeded those in the first month of 2018, which the government has attributed to increased rainfall and humidity.
Recommended reads
Do Indonesians still care about human rights? (Indonesia at Melbourne)
On the whole, the survey provided a positive picture about understanding and acceptance of human rights in Indonesia. It also showed that despite fears about eroding tolerance in Indonesia, many Indonesians appear tolerant of members of other faiths in their local environment.
But when pressed on other individual rights, a more complex, and much less rosy, picture emerges. Almost two-thirds (62 per cent) of respondents agreed or somewhat agreed with the death penalty. Only 13 per cent disagreed with the death penalty outright, while 25 per cent somewhat disagreed.
Indonesia Faces A Diabetes Epidemic – And It’s The Young Who Are Most Affected (South China Morning Post)
In Indonesia nearly 16 million adults are estimated to be living with type 2 diabetes. Experts estimate more than half of diabetes cases in Indonesia remain undiagnosed, especially among young people
The Chaotic World Of Indonesia’s Violent Ultras (These Football Times)
To paraphrase Mexican writer Carlos Fuentes, there is no creation without tradition. Anything new is simply an adjustment of that which already exists. This leaves certain things in certain places in a bind. How can you create something if you have very little history?
Football in Indonesia fits into this category. Its lack of historical prowess, at least on a global scale, means that anything it creates moving forward is something entirely new and often hybrid. Fan culture best embodies this sense of a cultural no-mans land in Southeast Asia. The Wild West mentality of fans draw on European and British tradition to create something unique, and when influenced by the social landscape of Indonesia, also deadly.
Indonesia: Genetic diversity 101 (Strategic Review)
As a megadiverse country, harboring one of the largest biodiversities in the world, Indonesia is faced with an uphill task in balancing economic growth and conservation of its biodiversity. This essay focuses on the Indonesian narrative for biodiversity conservation, especially at the genetic level. We argue that conservation of genetic diversity in Indonesia does not have a definitive narrative, albeit it has a potential role in building scientific excellence and economic growth. Finding a balance between economic growth and genetic diversity conservation is of the utmost importance and will be beneficial in the long run.
Indonesia’s Tradition of Cross-Gender Dancing (Great Big Story)
When Didik Nini Thowok performs, the audience is transported into a beautiful world full of intricate costumes, dancing and colors. Thowok is famous for a unique style of cross-gender dance rooted in Indonesian culture. Differing from drag, this type of performance combines Indonesian dance forms and characters with storytelling. Although Thowok has faced discrimination, he is determined to continue preserving this dance tradition within his country, while also bringing it to the international stage.
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